Camping trips can be very tricky if you are not weather wise! The power of freehand forecasting can help!
“Looks like a storm coming!”
MBConant original posted on 061116
A three-day camping trip turns bad.
With fine weather and warm days, our summer outing was going well. On the second day the four of us took a hike to the High ridge. Along with looking at the valley and surrounding hills, I saw a small line of dark gray clouds in the south western edge of the sky. Before leaving, I was aware that the small line of clouds had become a bit larger and had begun to fill into the southernmost portion of the western sky. Not a lot of clouds to speak of, just enough to see the difference, barely noticeable on the horizon.
“Looks like a storm coming, perhaps we should call it a day and head home” I said.
This was greeted with; “It’s sunny, it’s warm, and the forecast said it would be nice for another day or two.”
The rest of the day was sunny and warm; The sun set bright and clear, and the night was warm too. But!
I saw another sign that evening as the campfire smoke chose not to rise into the sky, but stay up in the treetops.
We ate, and talked, and turned in for the night. Sometime before dawn, the air got heavy and the morning sun did not shine. We had a hard time getting the fire going for breakfast and the rain started before we finished eating. It was a steady rain that would last for the next two days. We packed up, and trudged our wet and heavy selves, down to the car and drove home. Another time we could have stayed dry.
What was overlooked, and what were the signs?
That time it was an approaching system.
Retrospect is an important tool when coming up with your forecast. Understanding the difference between a storm and a weather system is important.
Most important is the progression of a weather system.
The story of, “a three-day camping trip turns bad”, brings up some questions.
What did I see that led me to believe a storm was coming?
How did a system come up when the weather had said several days of good weather?
What other signs were noticeable?
Why did this system present itself differently?
Here are some answers.
What did I see that led me to believe a storm was coming? The line of clouds, cloud type, location and direction of travel.
How did a system come up when the weather forecasters had said several days of good weather? A system can develop in less than a day. We were two days out from a forecast update.
What other signs were noticeable? The smoke in the treetops. Pressure was dropping and humidity was building.
Why did this system present itself differently?
- Large systems have a long start and usually have slowly dropping cloud heights.
- Some smaller systems can be moisture laden front to back such that they start with lower clouds. This system was such and came with lots of rain.
